On the wall of a farmhouse in central Illinois, John Bartman displays a picture of his great-grandfather. It shows a man in a bulky coat standing next to a mule, with the field behind him extending toward a flat, grey horizon. Since James K. Polk was president, his family has cultivated that same land. They experienced more droughts than anyone cared to count, the Dust Bowl, the Great Depression, and the Civil War. It is therefore worthwhile to pay attention to what Bartman says about how the present moment feels different.
Mostly, the math is different. In January, fertilizer cost him about $400 per ton; today, it costs more than $600. He didn’t place enough preorders. Only 19% of farmers in the South locked in their supplies prior to the spike, compared to 67% in the Midwest. That seemingly insignificant difference is what determines whether a farm signs paperwork at the courthouse or ends the year in the black.
| Key Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Topic | U.S. Fertilizer Crisis & Food Price Impact |
| Reporting Body | American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) |
| Farmers unable to afford full fertilizer needs | 70% (national average) |
| Fertilizer price jump (Jan–May 2026) | From ~$400/ton to over $600 per ton |
| Farm bankruptcy increase (2024–2025) | 46% |
| USDA 2026 food price forecast | 3.6% increase (revised upward) |
| Hardest-hit region | Southern U.S. — 78% of farmers affected |
| Key global chokepoint | Strait of Hormuz — roughly one-third of world fertilizer shipments |
| U.S. share of global fertilizer production | About 9% (net importer) |
| Drought coverage of continental U.S. | 61% under moderate to exceptional drought |
Approximately 70% of the 5,700 farmers surveyed by the American Farm Bureau Federation said they could no longer afford the fertilizer their fields needed this season, which should have alarmed more people than it did. The picture becomes clearer when you break it down by region: 78% in the South, 69% in the Northeast, 66% in the West, and 48% in the Midwest. It’s difficult to ignore how the pain is dispersed unevenly and how the areas least able to absorb it are being most severely affected.
It seems as though the reasons are stacked on top of one another to create dysfunction. Last year’s tariffs forced Canadian fertilizer into a trade dispute that no one in the agriculture industry requested. The Strait of Hormuz, a small waterway that most Americans couldn’t locate on a map but that transports roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade, then closed. You begin to understand why farm bankruptcies increased by 46% between 2024 and 2025 when you consider that diesel prices are rising due to the same Gulf disruption and that 61% of the continental United States is currently experiencing drought.
Officials in the administration appear to be reading from a different script. “America has plenty of fertilizer,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated to Fox Business.” JD Vance, the vice president, called the Middle East situation “a little blip.” Marco Rubio claimed that Iran, not us, was to blame for the stranded supply. Perhaps. However, according to USDA data, the United States produces only 9% of the world’s fertilizer and is still a net importer, so a disruption seven thousand miles away would undoubtedly end up in an Iowa supply shed. The official tone and the reality on the ground seem to be drifting apart.
More bluntly than most, Shawn Arita of North Dakota State stated that before March 1, many farms were already operating at negative margins. He claimed that the crisis was exacerbated rather than caused by the fertilizer spike. That’s a crucial distinction. Good harvests and inexpensive inputs, which eventually ran out at the same time, covered up the agricultural sector’s years-long silent bleeding.
Even though the timeline is a little unclear, what this means for everyone else is clear. It was a “one-two punch,” according to Richard Volpe of Cal Poly, with fuel costs being felt right away and fertilizer costs arriving in late summer and early fall. The USDA has already raised its forecast for food prices in 2026 to 3.6%. Since feed costs have an impact on herd decisions that take years to resolve, beef will probably run hotter. It’s easy to think that someone in Washington has a plan as you watch this play out. The quiet revival discussion surrounding the $900 million fertilizer plant program from the Biden administration raises the possibility that someone will eventually do so.