The atmosphere in the satellite communications industry changed on the day the Amazon-Globalstar deal went live in a way that is difficult to explain unless you have seen these events happen before. The analyst notes, the stock charts turning red, and the inevitable explosion of headlines were all present. However, there was something more subdued and nearly uncomfortable beneath that. a feeling that someone who hadn’t even been taking the game seriously a week prior had just changed the rules.
The first to notice it was AST SpaceMobile. The stock fell, somewhat recovered, and then fell once more the following morning. You could practically hear the strategic clocks ticking inside Midland, Texas, boardrooms when Tim Horan at Oppenheimer suggested that AST might need to pursue spectrum from either Viasat or Iridium just to maintain its competitive footing. The business might have anticipated this. It’s also possible that they didn’t—not at $11.57 billion, not at this scale.
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Primary Companies | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Iridium Communications (IRDM) |
| Catalyst Event | Amazon’s $11.57 billion acquisition of Globalstar, announced this week |
| AST SpaceMobile Q4 2025 Revenue | $54.3 million (a 2,731% year-over-year jump) |
| Iridium Q4 2025 Revenue | $212.9 million, roughly flat year over year |
| Globalstar Operational Satellites | 48, with more launches planned |
| Apple’s Stake in Globalstar | Roughly 20%, accounting for nearly two-thirds of revenue |
| AST SpaceMobile Market Cap | Approximately $33 billion |
| Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) Target Launch | 2028, with plans for 3,000-plus satellites |
| Stock Performance Since Late 2023 | ASTS up roughly 1,400%; IRDM essentially flat |
| Key Analyst Voice | Tim Horan, Oppenheimer |
Despite its quiet years, Globalstar proved to be the prize that no one truly recognized until Amazon entered the market and made the offer. 48 functional satellites. a revised agreement with Apple, which already held roughly 25% of the business and relied on its network for satellite features of the iPhone and Apple Watch. $273 million in revenue in 2025 is modest by Amazon’s standards, but what matters most in this case are the spectrum rights. Amazon recently purchased a large reservoir, and Spectrum is the new oil.
Speaking with those who follow this industry gives the impression that AST SpaceMobile has been operating on a narrative rather than financial data. The narrative is truly captivating. In locations where towers cannot reach, cellular broadband can be transmitted directly from space to regular phones. With $54.3 million in revenue compared to just two million the previous year, the fourth quarter of 2025 at last demonstrated something approaching traction. However, the company’s market capitalization is close to $33 billion, and it also reported a $74 million net loss for the same quarter. It appears that investors have faith in something that has not yet materialized.
The circumstances in Iridium are different, though not necessarily better. With $25 million in net income for the quarter that ended in December 2025, the business truly makes money. Its revenue line has been remarkably consistent, averaging $213 million every quarter. dependable, steady, and all of a sudden a target. Iridium has spectrum if AST needs it. Iridium has what Amazon needs to further consolidate. Everyone else finds Iridium fascinating because of the same stability that gave it a sense of security.
As this develops, it’s difficult to ignore how frequently the satellite industry has changed. After being saved from bankruptcy in 1999, Iridium quietly rose to prominence as one of the more reputable brands in orbital communications. Companies whose satellites are hardly warm are now used to measure it. Years ago, Tesla had similar concerns about whether scale would ever materialize. Eventually, it did, but not in the timeframe that anyone had anticipated.
Whether AST SpaceMobile proceeds swiftly or cautiously will likely determine what happens next. Both have expenses. The cost and complexity of a spectrum deal with Viasat or Iridium would raise concerns about execution and dilution. It might be worse to stand motionless. Although the Globalstar deal won’t close until 2027 and Amazon Leo isn’t expected to start services until 2028, the runway feels shorter than the calendar indicates.
Observing Wall Street’s response gives the impression that the direct-to-device market is going to consolidate more quickly than anyone anticipated. Everything is already overshadowed by Starlink. Amazon is now pulling up a chair thanks to its spectrum, capital, and partnership with Apple. The smaller players will have to decide whether to partner, merge, or hope they are strong enough to stand alone. From here, none of those choices appear simple.