Looking at the current state of the world economy is somehow confusing. One thing is clear from the numbers. The atmosphere conveys a different message. 2025 was a year of “remarkable resilience,” according to the World Bank’s January report, and that is accurate on paper. Growth persisted. The markets were booming. From Phoenix to Hyderabad, the AI investment boom continued to pour chips and concrete into data centers. However, if you spend enough time looking at the charts, you begin to notice things that aren’t stated aloud.
The tariff line is the first chart that most economists look at. By late 2025, the average effective US tariff rate had risen to about 17 percent, a level not seen since the 1930s. It’s not a minor detail tucked away in a footnote. That is a change in structure. Before the new rates went into effect, importers filled warehouses and front-loaded shipments during the first half of the year. The goods were no longer arriving in the same quantities by the second half. In the port data, you could practically see the surge followed by the decline, which was concentrated in the nations with the highest rates.
| Indicator | Value / Detail |
|---|---|
| Global growth (2025, est.) | A surprisingly resilient year, revised upward by 0.4 points since June |
| Projected global growth (2026) | 2.6 percent, easing from 2025 |
| Projected global growth (2027) | 2.7 percent, a mild rebound |
| Average effective US tariff rate (late 2025) | About 17 percent — the highest since the 1930s |
| Global goods and services trade growth (2026 est.) | Slowing to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent |
| Major shock factor | The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz energy disruption |
| Investment theme of the year | An ongoing AI capital expenditure surge |
| Risk direction | Tilted to the downside, per the IMF World Economic Outlook |
| Most exposed regions to oil shock | Europe and Asia, more than the United States |
| Source publications referenced | World Bank, Capital Economics, IMF, WEF |
The trade chart, on the other hand, provides a more subtle yet insightful narrative. Global trade in goods and services is expected to increase by 3.4 percent in 2025, but only 2.2 percent in 2026. The language used in Capital Economics’ monthly chart packs has changed from “shrugging off tariffs” in the fall to “softening” by the winter. It’s possible that inventory builds that have now reached the end of their useful lives were the source of the resilience.
Nobody really knows how to read the AI investment chart. Spending is very high. Forecasts for earnings are optimistic. However, it seems like the conviction is doing a lot of work when you walk through any tech conference these days. It appears that investors think the returns will be realized. It’s genuinely unclear if they do on the timeline being priced in.
The Iranian conflict followed, bringing with it the energy chart that completely changed the course of spring. Following disruptions to shipments across the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026, the price of natural gas and oil skyrocketed. Asia and Europe bore the brunt of it. Less so in the United States. The fact that Capital Economics released two special edition chart packs—one in March and another in April—indicates how rapidly the analysts were changing their opinions.
The World Bank’s downside-scenario chart is the one that subtly haunts everything else. It simulates what would happen if risk appetite disappeared and equity valuations broke—the kind of move that seems impossible until it doesn’t. Growth is less than the baseline. The hardest hit are emerging markets, which are already lagging behind the 2020 recovery.
As this develops, it’s difficult to ignore how many of the favorable elements from 2025—stockpiling, rising risk appetite, and AI optimism—are the kind of things that don’t happen again. They were fleeting trends disguised as tailwinds. This moment is explained by charts that are not particularly dramatic. Simply put, they are truthful. And perhaps that’s why they are more difficult to look at.